Jan Mareš, Ph.D.

Jan Mareš, Ph.D.

Data Scientist, Researcher

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Teaching experience 1

Undergraduate course, University 1, Department, 2014

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Teaching experience 2

Workshop, University 1, Department, 2015

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20190501 illicit financial flows and trade reporting gap

Published:

Illicit Financial Flows and Trade Mispricing: Decomposing the Trade Reporting Gap (with A. Cobham, P. Jansky)

Trade mispricing is a real phenomenon, documented by numerous case studies, and identified as a major risk to international development. What is less clear is the scale of illicit financial outflows contained within any given pattern of mispricing, because there are multiple reasons for distortions in the data, and because individual methodologies may not allow clear separation of these. In this paper we review critically the existing methodologies to estimate trade mispricing. We find that some studies providing estimates for many countries are not reliable; while some studies using confidential customs data provide more robust findings that are unlikely to be easily replicated soon for many, especially low-income, countries. Both streams of literature are unsatisfactory since they do not provide us with an answer to the question of the scale of illicit financial flows due to trade mispricing, either globally or facing low-income countries in particular. The relatively novel focus of our review on decomposing the trade reporting gap into its component elements suggests a new methodological approach, which may combine robustness and broad coverage of countries. To this end, we present an explorative analysis using UN Comtrade data.

20190801 tax benefit model

Published:

Changes in the Czech Tax-benefit System: Long-run Effects (with V. Jacina)

We provide a methodological overview of the framework for assessing the long-run impact of the changes in tax-benefit system. The framework has three related building blocks. The first one is a microsimulation tool of the tax-benefit system which accounts for most of the taxes and benefits featured in the Czech welfare system. The second block employs the output of microsimulation tool to estimate consequent change in the labour supply of the individuals. It is a structural probit model which assigns probability of participation in the labour market to individuals based on their socio-demographic characteristics, wage, and non-labour income. The third block is a simple general equilibrium model where it is possible to model long-run macroeconomic relationships between gross domestic product, gross wage bill, net disposable income of households, and other macroeconomic indicators. Although we do not explicitly compute distributional impact of the simulated scenarios, the framework could be easily extended in this direction.

20191008 financial development and income inequality

Published:

Financial Development and Income Inequality

We investigate the impact of financial development on income inequality differentiating between depth, efficiency and access to financial markets and institutions. We apply panel Bayesian model averaging framework to address model uncertainty to reveal that financial development has complex influence on the income distribution within countries. The access to and efficiency of banking decrease income inequality. The size of the markets has no influence on overall income inequality, but contributes to the increasing top income shares. Moreover, unemployment along with investment into non-tangible assets increase income inequality while higher redistribution and physical capital investment imply lower levels of inequality.

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